CSM Mike does Maths

Dave Stark got me thinking with a post to TMC ( a comment actually)

        • upon revision it’s probably a bit cheaper than that. closer to 12b but it’s still hardly cheap.

          as to how i did it; to train 500,000 sp (for one packet) that will take you 7.7 days based on +5s and a perfect remap.

          you get 50,000 sp back if you’re over 80m sp. so you’re going to need 10 of those every 7.7 days. there are ~4 lots of 7.7 in 30 days (one month).

          that’s 40 (well, 38.9 but i’m doing quick maths here) skill packets.

          the price of a plex is 1.2bn, so that’s 300m isk per 7.7 days (in my original calculation that i did at like 5am when i was half asleep i mistakenly said this was 400m). so it’s 300m per packet just for the training time.

          if you now multiply 300m by 40 you get 12bn isk.

          that’s WITHOUT the cost of the extractor.

So I decided to play with numbers for a bit as well.

Basic assumptions I took.  1)  Daves quote for training speed at +5 and well optimized (2) 15$ for a months playtime  (3)  People are not stupid (ok, 3 is a stretch)

Say that I want to train skills ahead of the ‘real time drag’  and suppose I can afford it.  What would be a reasonable cost to pay?  Well, less than plex value would be nice but someone had to pay for it so suppose the base value was that someone sold it to me at cost (their cost)  If they can farm 2 million sp a month on their brood mare then it would be reasonable to expect that they want to get paid for that.  1 plex for one month work seems like a reasonable ‘at cost’ assuming that Aurum is free (bad assumption but I wan to roll with it)  That means that each TSP would be worth .25 plex.  ($3.75)

So I asked around what a well skilled number would be for subcaps.  25 mill was a popular figure bandied so let’s roll with that.  From .5 mill to 5 mill the new character being ‘helped’ will need a 1:1 ratio of skills so he/she will buy 9 TSPs for the 4.5 mill boost.  From 5 mill sp to 25 mill sp there is that diminishing returns to account for so the next 20 million sp will actually need 25 million sp bought which is 50 TSP’s.  That give us a grand total of 59 TSP’s to get from starting out to fully ready to rock.

It would take one brood mare 15 months to pump those out.  Or 15 brood mares 1 month.  But either way, 15 months of someones time to bake those TSP’s 14.75 if you want to get exact about it.  A quick 14.75 * 15 Gives us the value of $221.25 .  That is the base cost for a character bought up with plex if you paid for the plex.  Again, this ignores CCP’s cut since we do not know what the extraction device and such will cost.

I cannot see anybody selling for less than this since that was their base cost unless they are fire-selling while quitting the game.

So, the most common defense of this proposal I see is that ‘it is the same as the Character Bazaar.’  I went and looked.  Now, for the record, I don’t like the character bazaar but I understand why it exists.  I looked at some older threads to get a feel for what the going rate was.  I started laughing.  A LOT of bumps for 25 mill characters if they ask more than 10 billion for them.  10 billion is less than 10 plex.

A few conclusions.  1)  If this goes through then someone could make a killing buying up characters and chopping them up for parts.  But if it does not go through . . .   (2)  It is cheaper (right now) to buy a character than the base cost of the TSP’s will be.  ‘But the character bazaar does demand a fee’ you exclaim?  Yes, yes it does, $20 I think?  Still cheaper even with that added in.  And there are character farmers who make very clean and focused alts, no embarrassing mining skills and all.

Economically?  I just don’t see it as a viable thing to buy a character up unless they do close the Bazaar down.  It is good, maybe, for a one shot boost to get into the flavour of the month.

BUT

I still do not like it.  I oppose it and have since it was shown to the CSM.

I will try to write a post elaborating why . . .soon.

but then, Vegas is coming and I fly out in a couple of days.  so don’t hold your breath.

or, do, I don’t tell you how to live your life.

fly it like you won it

m

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to CSM Mike does Maths

  1. Dorian Reu says:

    Holy crap, space math. But, I still agree with you.

  2. anthoron says:

    Interesting.

    Also, I’m part of a Mike blog!

  3. Dermeisen says:

    I don’t think that I agree with you Mike, but I just don’t know I want new guys in ships more quickly without wreaking th feeling of achievement, damn. Anyway have a great time in Vegas and I’m glad that your the one wrestling with this stuff!

  4. urziel99 says:

    Gonna have Grath on Podside Saturday. Please try to attend.

  5. Catalina de Erauso says:

    If they want to sell skill points, CCP should come clear and just allow to reallocate them too.

    If a SP is a tradeable commodity, moving it inside my brain from skill A to skill B should be doable and cheaper than transfering to somebody else’s brain.

  6. I don’t think you can underestimate the amount of ISK/PLEX that the super rich have which could be pumped into the effort of producing SP packets to use for various purposes of enticement, rewards, or bribes regardless of the cost.

    I’m very interested to see how this idea rolls out in practice. I didn’t like the proposal at first but the more I think and talk about it, the more tangible the benefits seem and the less tangible the negatives seem. As coasted by CCP, the concept probably needs a tweak or two to get just right though.

    I blogged about it too: http://outlawinsouciant.blogspot.com/2015/10/musings-on-buying-sp.html

    • mikeazariah says:

      No, I KNOW there are some wicked rich folks out there.

      But are they new players? Is it fair to say this is something for new players or should we pitch it as a benefit for the veterans?

      m

      • anthoron says:

        the only thing stopping this being accessible for new players is having to extract 500k at a time. having the bar set that high forces an unrealistically high minimum price for new players.

        reduce it by a factor of 10. 30m isn’t difficult to get for a new player, 300m is.

        if you think high sp player using this is bad, set it at 0 SP injected at 100m SP. then again – rich people will make an alt and inject SP in to it to do what they want. but that’s no different to them sauntering over to the bazaar and just buying a new character outright to do what they need rather than injecting more SP in to their high SP character.

      • Catalina de Erauso says:

        It is a benefit for players who give more money to CCP, directly or indirectly. So it’s a way of “paying to win”, something that IMHO does not belong in EVE.

  7. Dinsdale Pirannha says:

    Do me a favour. Assuming you are going to Vegas, as one Canadian to another, whack upside the head another Canadian pl raivi so he in turn can pass it on to kil2.

    I really don’t believe any dev, that even give lip service to the “cruel and harsh” life of Eve, would entertain the concept of this madness in their most crazed dreams. This system will be immediately gamed by the rich cartels, who can’t RMT all the ISK they have now, but will soon have an outlet for it. Looking forward to when the first goon announces “all done, no more skills to learn!”, just because they can.

    I thought that maybe I was wrong about the finances of CCP when they announced that orgy of spending on sexy new hardware. Then I read that dev post and realized how they planned on funding it.

  8. Why can’t we chop up corpses after killing capsuleers into brain tissue grafts,
    and trade that in game for very small amounts of un-allocated skill points ?

    source: http://crossingzebras.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Brain.jpg

    To the victor the spoils right, and there is no clearer victory then Death 🙂

    Regards, a Freelancer

    PS: hope you did not do a 180 on this Bullshit from CCP ?!
    “I am also against this. I could go into details but . . . this feels wrong to me. Against what I thought the game to be.”
    source: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&_ga=1.156977979.1623507913.1444829944&t=450912&p=2

  9. Chanina says:

    Nice Maths done there. I’m not against trading SP but it needs to be limited to achieve some points.
    1) Player age is a crucial intel info; a few days old character shouldn’t fly top tier ships; a newbee would still suck but it would get abused by veterans;
    2) if new players are allowed to jump too high with this investment those who cant effort it feel left behind or excluded. that’s not healthy.
    3) new players taking the fast lane miss out a lot of opportunities to find other interesting game play; and they may feel ripped off once they realize that this gold ship they now can fly is killed by a character with less SP and a T1 frigate.

    To restrict it a monthly limit of allocatable SP should work well, like no more than 2mio SP per month. to cap it off beside the reduced effect a TSP per character limit could be in place. Like no more than 100 TSP a character can get injected. Instead of blank SP to allocate I would prefer a cerebral enhancer solution which speeds up training with diminishing returns the higher your SP are. Speed up progression, don’t jump over it.

    A huge concern makes the perception from outside. If it ends up as a “hey eve is pay to win” feeling marketing will have a problem.

    On a personal level, a TSP injection would have been the only way I might have done to improve my skills as buying a character with a history other than the one I am writing is not an option for me.

  10. splatus says:

    Makes me wond if they indeed shut down the character bazaar then, developing an alternative before. Oh the tinfoil shines bright. What I’d really want is the ability to extract “some” skill points from corpses. That gives them immediate commodity value. It would likely be too easy to game (suicide etc) but it would be interesting. Or maybe the SP that are lost when a T3 pilots dies drop as a token that can be looted and fought over….

  11. Andy Taylor says:

    Nice Math. But not really.
    What you are working out figures for is PURELY toons created as skill point farms and are missing out a LARGE amount of toons that are going to be selling off skillpoints.
    1. Booster Alts – maxxed out in boosting skills (either Combat or Mining) and now training ‘wasted skills’ they will never use as all they are is an AFK booster. This Account is paid for in the way of the boosts it gives that help increase the revenue of those it is boosting – that increase in revenue is used to purchase plex for this toon.
    2. Miners – maxxed out mining skills, and maxxed out industry job slots, and now training into ‘wasted’ skills that are orientated towards combat that they will never use as all they are used for is a squad of mining Exhumer pilots. These alts earn more than enough ISK to plex their own accounts and have no need for skills outside their specific skill set.
    3. Station traders – maxxed out trading skills. No need for any other skillset as they never leave Jita or Amarr.
    Thats just the first 3 off the top of my head.
    Because these toons already plex their accounts with their activities, they are not beholden to earn more than 1 plex worth of ISK for their skillpoints each month. This income is a BONUS to an account already paying for itself. This will allow for them to undercut the HELL out of the Skill Point Bunnys without even batting an eye. As long as they sell the packets for more than the cost of the extractor, then they are making a profit on the venture,

    • mikeazariah says:

      Fair. I was looking at specific case.

      m

      • anthoron says:

        and none of those will ever sell below cost price either. there’s no reason to.

        when everyone else, who is doing it for a profit will be selling no lower than cost price, there’s no reason for anyone else to do so. entering/exiting the market costs nothing therefore the price of packets will track at 1/4plex price + extractor price.

        sure, miners, afk boosters, and traders can undercut people setting up SP farms – however they’re going to undercut you by 5 isk, not 500m, as there’s no reason to do so. anyone doing something silly like selling skill packets for extractor price will simply have their stupidly low priced packets being snapped up by traders and flipped.

        the only way sp packets are going to cost less than 1/4 plex + extractor is if all the aforementioned players (and them alone) sell more SP than people want to buy – look at how many characters are traded per year, do you really think that’s likely?

        then again having said all that – every single account created to farm SP for isk will be making a respectable amount of isk anyway – it takes less than 1m SP to set up a very efficient PI character.

        regardless of how much you can afford to sell an SP packet for – it won’t sell for pretty much anything other than cost price because any selling below cost price will be flipped by traders and you won’t really be able to sell them at all for above cost price because the market has such a low barrier to entry and it costs nothing to enter/exit the market at will so the downward pressure on the market will be huge.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: